I get a lot of comments about risk. Usually, it's along the lines of "How can you justify engaging in all these high-risk activities?" or "That's just crazy!" or "Think how sad the people you leave behind will be when you die."

In truth, as much as I appreciate the optimistic outlook that people will be sad when I die, the person(s) saying these things to me (not you, of course) is usually guilty of engaging in just about all of the known highest-risk behaviors. Let's explore and, if we're lucky, justify this observation.

I'll use some data put together by the National Safety Council and a chart made by National Geographic magazine to illustrate the point. The data and chart are based on a statistical analysis.

The first likely comment is that "Statisticians are liars", "Statistics lie" or "There are three types of lies - lies, damn lies, and statistics" or some such popular aphorism. The truth is that statistics are mathematical formulas and do not lie - the lie or inaccuracy comes in either having bad data for analysis, faulty application of the analysis or in the human interpretation of the result of the analysis - the latter being the most prevalent (I just made up that statistic, but I'm 99% sure it's true!).

For instance, everyone "knows" about someone whose lifestyle included smoking two packs of unfiltered cigarettes a day, living in an abandoned uranium ore mine, never exercising, eating lard mixed with white flour and sugar for every meal, and washing it all down with a pint of whiskey every day - and then "lived to be 95 years old". This little anecdote is usually used to justify the view that "statistics don't mean anything" when it's pointed out that the aforementioned lifestyle has many statistical risk factors associated with it. Nothing could be further from the truth. The statistics mean everything; it's up to us to learn how they apply to our individual lives. If you want to further explore the subject of statistics, and run the risk of becoming statistically literate, go here.

So, let's start with the National Geographic chart (below). The dots and numbers on the chart each represent a probability, in any given year, for the U.S. population born before 2003, of dying from a particular cause. The bigger the dot, the higher the probability. A few observations:

The leading cause of death amongst this population is heart disease, with odds of 20% (1 out of 5) that if someone dies this year, it will be from heart disease.

Next on the list are: cancer (1 out of 7), stroke (1 out of 24), motor vehicle accident (1 out of 84), suicide (1 out of 119) and so on. Take a moment and absorb the chart...

Of interest to me, living in California near several earthquake faults, is the statistic that my risk of dying from earthquake this year (1 in 117,127) is lower than my risk of being legally executed (1 in 62,468). This statistic is also interesting because it clearly points out that while the statistics may be correct for the overall population studied (remember - U.S. population, born before 2003), they cannot unthinkingly be applied to individual circumstance. For instance, since it's much more probable that I live near an earthquake fault (100%) than that I'll commit a capital crime (hopefully 0%), it's absurd to assume I'm more likely to die of legal execution than earthquake. However, if one were a poor black man living in Texas I suspect the "legally whacked" vs "died in earthquake" statistics would be quite different - but I digress...

Also on a side note, I am bemused that I regularly observe people gasping and reacting to hornets, wasps and bees (1 in 56,789), and have never heard someone scream "Oh my God, it's a Triple Bacon Cheeseburger with Supersized Fries!" (implicated in heart disease (1 in 5), cancer(1 in 7), stroke (1 in 24)) - which event should be far scarier...

Back to the discussion at hand, which concerns "Why do those climbers / mountaineers / canyoneers / hikers / kayakers / cavers / etc. take such tremendous risks, blah blah blah". Here's the deal: one has to be a complete masochist (apparently not fatal, doesn't appear on the chart...) or suicidal (1 out of 119, who knew...) to engage in the aforementioned activities while out of shape, overweight, on a poor diet, untrained, unprepared mentally, unmentored, or unequipped with the right gear - just to name a few critical elements. Come to think of it, I must be channeling a masochist part of the time.

Anyhoo - in terms of not disappointing your loved ones by departing this earthly vale early - engaging in behaviors that predispose one to:

• heart disease (being overweight, aerobically unfit, eating too much animal grease, smoking, being exposed to secondhand smoke)
• or cancer (being overweight, smoking, being exposed to secondhand smoke, unprotected sun exposure, living in an abandoned uranium mine)
• or stroke (being overweight, aerobically unfit, eating too much animal grease, smoking, being exposed to secondhand smoke, there seems to be a general theme here),
• or riding in motor vehicles (especially while intoxicated or while having a heart attack or a stroke, which is clearly not out of the question...),
• or committing suicide,
• or falling (if you study the numbers underlying this statistic, you soon discover that, by far, this means falling off ladders and things, falling down because you're weak, overweight and unable to balance, or some such - and not dominated by some fun thing like falling off a cliff)

- just to cover the top killers - means that the U.S. population in general is dying in droves from what are - to a great extent - preventable events. Granted, if your parents passed you bad DNA, you may not have overwhelming discretion in how you go to the dirt nap - isn't that fun! And guess what - to be a successful climber / mountaineer / canyoneer / hiker / kayaker / caver / etc. - and have fun at it - one needs to pretty much avoid the overweight, weak, aerobically unfit, poor diet, etc. regimen that drives the statistics in the chart for the U.S. population.

You can choose to:

• lose weight
• get stronger
• get aerobically fit
• stop smoking
• stay away from secondhand smoke
• eat more of those foods that are actually good for you (and not according to the "Meat Council" or the "Salt Council" or the "Strip Every Nutrient and Bit of Fiber Out of Grain Flour and Then Add a Few Chemicals Back in to Get What is Essentially Sugar With a Multivitamin Council")
• use sun protection
• never drive while drunk or with a drunk

...and once you have all those things in order in your life (if you don't have them under control, then you must not care about being there for your loved ones in the long run), then let's have a new discussion about the risk of dying while engaged those in those "risky" outdoor activities. Note that I haven't even touched on "quality of life" issues.

I hope I've accumulated enough good Karma to balance out publishing this - and I hope we both live to have the discussion on risk...